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Thread: Bilete @sun

  1. 23rd March 2014, 16:44 #1
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    Bilete @sun

    Bilet SF #1 : https://sports.bwin.com/ro/sports/be...ils/1tcngmczky

    Chelsea, Gladbach, Sevilla, Pelicans(+6), x la Chiajna-Petrolul ( corecte )
    Dinamo,Valenciennes,Spurs(victorie cu 1-5) ( pierdute )

    x sau Soton, Atletico, x la Real-Barca si CFR - U Cluj ( pending )

    Bilet Safe #1 https://sports.bwin.com/ro/sports/be...ils/1tcngsekyp

    (lost already)

    Schalke, Liverpool, x sau Rayo Val, Grizzlies, Jazz, Botosani ( corecte )
    Bordeaux ( pierdut )
    Atletico,x sau U Cluj ( pending )

    Bilet safe #2 https://sports.bwin.com/ro/sports/be...ils/1tcpxrczu6

    (pending)

    Sageata - Steaua 2
    +
    NBA

    Hawks(+6.5),Kings(-9) si Cavs(+9) + Wolves,Nuggets,Mavs si Lakers
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  3. 24th March 2014, 20:54 #2
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    Bilet Safe #2 ( 5-3 )

    au iesit Steaua, Kings, Cavs, Lakers si Nuggets. Wolves si Hawks si-au batut joc de leaduri de peste 15 puncte iar Mavs au pierdut in OT.

    Bilet Safe #3 ( NBA tonight )

    Suns, Bulls, Jazz, Raptors, Lakers+5 si Under 197 la Wolves-Grizzlies
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  4. 28th March 2014, 08:36 #3
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    Bilet SF#1 ( 6W-6L )
    Bilet SF#2 ( already played 6W-6L ) : City, Lakers+5,Suns@Wizards,Raptors@Celtics, Grizzlies@Jazz, Steaua ( won ) ; Newcastle, Petrolul, Augsburg, Stuttgart, Sacramento (vs Knicks), Raptos@Cleveland


    tonight : 9 NBA matches.
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  5. 6th April 2014, 11:56 #4
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    Heat - Knicks : Heat (-7) , Heat prima la 20, Heat castiga cu 21-25 (11) sau Heat castiga cu 26+ ( 15.5 ).

    Orice line cu Heat sub (-9) e ok. Heat conduce cu 2-1 season series. Ultimul meci Heat a castigat cu 108-82.

    Clippers - Lakers : Clippers (-15,5), Under 226.

    Lakers tre sa tina pasul la puncte/meci si nu vad cum, Clippers isi poate menaja starterii in Q4. Clippers a castigat la 48, respectiv 36 de puncte ultimele 2 meciuri directe, si nu mai are asa de mare nevoie de inca o demonstratie de forta cu playoffs around the corner, dar ar trebui sa acopere oricum.

    Pacers - Hawks : Hawks (+8).

    Un line mai mic de +5 nu merita. Indiana e suficient de praf momentan. Singura problema care o vad ar fi daca Knicks pierd ( most likely ) Hawks s-ar putea sa nu traga la fel de tare.

    Kings - Mavericks : Mavs win

    Mavs need this for the playoff race. Insa nu i-as lua cu nici un spread, Kings pot sa tina pace-ul in meci. Over (205) mai degraba decat under, but I'd stay away from it.

    Spurs - Grizzlies : Spurs win, under (192) .

    Spurs au castigat ultimele 7 meciuri directe. Nu i-as lua cu spread (-7) pentru ca Grizzlies cand pierde nu o face la diferenta mare.

    Rockets - Nuggets : Rockets win, Rockets (-11,5). Rockets by 11-15.

    Not much to say here. Nuggets au jucat bine lately, dar Ty Lawson s-a rupt in ultimul meci.

    Blazers - Pelicans : Blazers win.

    Just Blazers win outwright. Line de -9 e iffy pentru ca portland nu mai e genul de echipa care sa acopere atatea puncte ( cum era la inceputul sezonului.) Under (205,5) more likely than over but not by much.

    Warriors - Jazz : Warriors (-12)

    Singura problema e cu cat invinge Golden State. Nu cred ca pot sa repete la rand un >30 point win, desi Jazz e poate chiar mai slaba decat Kings. Orice line mai bun de -15 e + EV.

    Suns - Thunder : Thunder, Thunder by 1-5.

    Ultimele 2 infrangeri pentru OKC au venit fara Westbrook. Acum el va juca pentru ca nu e back to back. Momentan Suns are +2,5, daca mai creste spre +5 incepe sa devina tentant.

    Safe picks: Heat(-7), Warriors (-12), Rockets (-11,5) , Mavs

    Best big odds picks: Heat by 26+, Thunder by (1-5), Hawks win, Warriors by 26+.
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  6. 7th April 2014, 09:15 #5
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    Safe Picks score : 3-1 ( Rockets reserves to blame ). Pe astea 4 le-am pus si eu single.

    Big odds picks score : 2-2 ( Warriors win by +26 si Hawks )

    Dintre celelalte picks au iesit Clippers -15,5, Blazers, Spurs, Hawks (+8)

    singurul care l-am gresit de tot a fost Suns-Thunder.
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  7. 8th April 2014, 08:55 #6
    Johnny D
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    Vai de capu meu ce-i aici! Universul pronosticurilor din NBA, no buuuuun!
    The difference between a good and an awesome diplomat is the ability to reconcile the arrogant assholes with the scardy whiners, it's almost an art really!
    I know because I'M BOTH!
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  8. 8th April 2014, 16:05 #7
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    Safe picks today : Hawks (win or spread), Spurs (win or spread), Mavs win, Thunder win

    Big odd picks : Heat by 1-5, Hawks by 11-15, Lakers win

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  9. 11th April 2014, 23:51 #8
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    picks for tonite : Heat, Nets, Bobcats, Magic ( spread )

    underdogs to bet on : Bucks, Suns
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  10. 12th April 2014, 02:07 #9
    White Shadow
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    Sun, unde iti faci analizele?... ce alte site'uri mai urmaresti...eventual pe ce forumuri mai intri?

    Mult succes in continuare.
    [B] "Behind this mask there is more than just flesh. Beneath this mask there is an idea... and ideas are bulletproof."[/B]
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  11. 13th April 2014, 10:43 #10
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    ma uit la toate rezumatele ( ~ 2-3 minute per rezumat ) din ziua precedenta pe flashscore.com ( aflu cine s-a accidentat intre timp, cum a decurs meciul, who is hot and who is not, care jucatori is rested si in ce sistem - Simplul fapt ca Davis nu joaca pentru Pelicans sau Irving pentru Cavs poate fi destul cat sa schimbe complet pickul. ). in rest citesc articole de pe bleacherreport.com/nba si ma uit cateodata peste statistici mai detaliate pe nba.com sau intru aici http://www.cbssports.com/nba/expert-picks pentru analiza mai mult decat picks.

    Un alt aspect de baza e lineul dat de casa pentru spread sau under/over. De exemplu faptul ca o echipa e 30W-20L si cealalta e 11W-39L, prima joaca acasa si are 1.05 la victorie, nu inseamna ca trebuie sa pui pe ei si cu spread de -17,5 sau mai stiu eu ce line din asta astronomic. Daca fac +20 in primele 3 sferturi, gazdele cel mai probabil vor menaja titularii, iar oaspetii vor incerca oricum sa revina.

    ca si hinturi pot sa zic ca NBA e destul de periculos pentru ca multe meciuri pot parea sigure, mai ales la cote in jur de 1,15 si pot fi tentante pentru mize mai mari, dar rezultatul final e fix invers.

    Pe de alta parte, profitul pentru pariori poate fi dat si de tankingul ( aka losing almost on purpose ) care multe echipe il fac post All-Star Break, unele chiar si inainte si de care se poate profita. Motivul pentru care fac asta e ca vor sa termine pe un loc cat mai prost posibil in clasament ca sa aiba draft pick cat mai bun anul urmator

    De multe ori existe cote care par nejustificate, si oricat ai incerca sa gasesti argumente, nu vei gasi. De acelea trebuie sa profiti, dar cum am zis si mai sus, in limita rezonabila a bankrollului. Un exemplu rapid de azi e Thunder@Pacers cu Thunder sa castige la 1.6. Daca ar fi dupa mine cota reala trebuie sa fie mai degraba spre 1.3 ( adica Thunder sa castige ~ 77% din timp, as opposed de 62% din timp, ce imi ofera casa ).
    Nu pariez decat in astfel de situatii, in care cota care cred eu ca e corecta ( data de procentajul de reusita care mi-l imaginez ) e mai bun decat ce ofera casa. De aici vin si pickurile pentru big odds care le-am dat. Cand am dat win by margin e de fapt un fel de pronostic la scor corect.
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  12. 26th April 2014, 20:35 #11
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    Hawks vs Pacers

    Hawks + 2.5 ( asta ii cam spreadul minim cu care se pot lua Hawks )
    Under 188.5 ( la fel, asta ii totalul minim pentru care merge under )

    Mavericks vs Spurs

    Spurs to win ( safer ) sau Spurs - 3.5 ( cred ca vor recastiga hca imediat de la Dallas )
    over 200.5 si Spurs sa inscrie peste 99

    Bocats vs Heat

    Bobcats+4.5 ( au tinut aproape binisor la Miami deci cred ca o sa tina chiar si mai aproape acasa )
    over 187.5 ( Bobcats o sa incerce sa out-scoreze pe Miami, cred ca si ei inteleg ca asta e singura lor sansa )

    Grizzlies vs Thunder

    Grizzlies + 3. dar nu mai putin de atat. au fost 2 OTuri in ultime 2 jocuri deci probabil va fi strans iar.
    U/O : no bet
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  13. 27th April 2014, 02:17 #12
    Hopshio
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    cum a castigat dallas...mai aveau 1.4 secunde si au aruncat din 3..din colt..cum a intrat..incredibil
    [COLOR="Blue"]Diapers and politicians should be changed often.Both for the same reason.[/COLOR]
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  14. 27th April 2014, 18:56 #13
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    mda... am buctat Bobcats - Miami de tot, celalalte le-am nimerit pe jumatate. Is neasteptat de stranse meciurile pana acum, e cu atat mai greu deci de ales ca lineurile is mici.

    anyways, here we go again:

    Bulls to win @ Wizards. Nene e suspendat. daca nu fac 2-2 acum e destul de greu sa intoarca de la 1-3. Over 182.
    Warriors - clippers => warriors to win + over 212. bounce back game
    Nets - raptors => Raptors cu spread.
    Blazers - rockets => over 214. Am vazut ultimul meci, paceul e super rapid, sanse mari sa iasa un total in jur de 220 iar.
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  15. 28th April 2014, 08:18 #14
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    desi am fost 5W-1L aseara, am "reusit performanta" sa pun pe un singur meci. You guessed it, Bulls to win.

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  16. 28th April 2014, 20:48 #15
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    Picks for tonight

    Heat -8 si under 188
    Pacers -6.5 cu spread.
    Spurs -4 si over 200 ( lock of the night ).
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  17. 25th May 2014, 22:15 #16
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    Spurs to win at Thunder @2.20 . Spurs i-au ucis la 35 de puncte pe OKC in Game 2. Fara Ibaka ( chiar daca joaca nu va fi 100% ) e aproape imposibil pentru OKC. Vad Spurs luand Game 3, OKC Game 4 ( sa nu fie sweep ) , si Spurs Game 5
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  18. 11th June 2014, 11:25 #17
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    Heat to win Game 4.

    aaaaand under 199.
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  19. 14th July 2014, 22:16 #18
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    Start from beggining

    Phase 1 : start : 30 units. Target : 50 units. bets of 1u
    ==============================================

    NBA Summer League:

    Pelicans (vs. Spurs) @1.6
    Warriors (vs. Lakers) @1.55
    Knicks (vs. Hornets) @1.45
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  20. 14th July 2014, 22:20 #19
    Cristy RVD
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    20 de unitati.
    In cat timp?
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  21. 15th July 2014, 07:38 #20
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    nelimitat. 4ever

    1W-2L
    prima noapte a mers ca fanu, warriors au pierdut la ultimul tip-in, in OT. bleah.

    Bilant -1.55u

    Next: Wang (1.571) , Vinci ( 1.285 ), Qarabakh ( 1.65)
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  22. 15th July 2014, 21:53 #21
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    2W - 0L + Wang amanat +0.935

    Total -0.615u

    Next : NBA Summer League : Bulls @1.4 & Jazz @ 1.975
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